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2024 State of the Almond Industry: Well-Positioned for Growth

12/18/2024

The true resilience of California almond growers has shined through over the last few years of hardship, and fortunately, this crop year, growers are finally seeing favorable changes pointing toward the right direction. 

This year’s 52nd Annual Almond Conference – held at the SAFE Credit Union Convention Center in Sacramento, CA, December 10-12 – was a positive indication that the collective grassroot efforts of growers, industry members, and the Almond Board of California (ABC), are working to create growth, opportunity and optimism, for California almonds. 

“The board, our committees, and our team at the Almond Board, are very focused on our four strategic priorities that we established earlier this year: Driving global demand, supporting a favorable trade and regulatory environment, maximizing our industry's value and optimizing the almond board's value,” said Clarice Turner, president and CEO of ABC, at the State of the Industry address.

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Almond Board CEO Clarice Turner at the State of The Industry Address during The Almond Conference 2024.

Today’s Economic Landscape 

While the industry is not out of the woods yet, there are tangible signs that healthy demand is on the rise. Last crop year, the industry sold 300 million pounds more than what was produced. Carry out levels are below 500 million pounds, which is a number that hasn’t been seen since 2019.

Coming into 2025, the economic landscape is expected to change, especially as a new administration is set to take over in January. Scott Clemons, partner and chief investment strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, discussed some of these changes, forecasting that personal spending, trade and tariff policies, immigration policies, and interest rates will all have an impact on the almond industry.

Market Conditions

While demand is looking up, almond acreage is declining. On trend with recent years, the 2024 Land IQ Acreage Report indicated that non-bearing and total almond acreage decreased for the third year in a row. Regionally, less almonds are being harvested from the South Valley, which is typically where the strongest yields have been, and production is shifting north. 

That said, the almond industry is seeing growing returns this crop year and is still well-positioned to grow in the future. That’s because the balance of supply and demand has recovered. 

“This shift was largely driven by annual shipments exceeding annual receipts for the first time in five years,” said Neil Zacky of Derco Foods. “With larger inventories in California and increased global production, overseas buyers adopted a hand to mouth purchasing strategy.”

This new strategy meant buyers delayed their purchase of almonds for as long as possible, hoping to receive better pricing. Carryover also dropped slightly below historical averages, much of which was lower quality. 

Because of this and reduced inventory numbers, buyers were quick to purchase the new crop and for longer periods of time, helping rebuild a healthy supply chain.

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Fostering Relationships on the Trade Front

Despite disruptions in the geopolitical space, overall, demand remained optimistic. Within the first three reporting months of the crop year, shipments increased by 41% in the Middle East and 36% in Southeast Asia. 

Keeping strong relationships with these markets and others who have trade and technical issues has been one of the key priorities of ABC’s agenda this year. Staff and committee members recently developed a global trade strategy, focused on leveraging relationships with international industry partners and providing necessary data for policy makers to make informed decisions. 

To bring growers into the conversation, ABC organized a Washington D.C. delegation, made up of farmers and individuals who are directly affected by the decisions made by government and legislative officials. 

Brandon Rebiero, ABC director and almond grower, was one of the farmers who participated and noted the value of having discussions with D.C. representatives on what is actually happening in the field.

“We’re just one of many crop organizations trying to get a foot in the door, so we have to do whatever we can to differentiate ourselves,” Rebiero explained. “We do that by having really good sound data and good relationships that last a while.”

Telling Our Stewardship Story

Just like the policy space, consumers make their decisions based on the information they have, so now more than ever, ABC is emphasizing the importance of telling the industry’s environmental stewardship story. 

Excessive water use for growing almonds continues to be a misconception the industry is combatting today, but ABC is increasing messaging to explain that every drop creates four crops: kernel, shell, hull and woody biomass. Additionally, trees are a huge contributor to the industry’s positive carbon footprint, which is another significant piece to stewardship.  

“Our trees collectively have already captured 30 million metric tons of carbon in this state,” Turner explained. “That’s like taking 24 million cars – all the passenger cars in California, Oregon, Washington, and Texas combined – off the road.” 

Data shows that consumers find environmental stewardship to be an important value proposition in their eating experience. Josette Lewis, chief scientific officer at ABC said many brands, including California almonds, are latching onto that.

“60% of the new products that were introduced in the last year had environmental messaging as part of them,” she said. “We have a great story to tell about the work that you do in your orchards.”

Expanding Innovation and Marketing Program

Between its sustainability benefits and versatility in new food products, almonds have immense potential within the food innovation space. In fact, in 2023, almond ingredients were included in 14,000 new food products.

Seeing that, ABC is investing in ways to continue keeping almonds top of mind for food industry experts. They’ve partnered up with chefs, high schools, colleges, and the Culinary Institute of America, to explore new opportunities and are capitalizing on the incredible health benefits of almonds, which remains the number one reason why consumers eat almonds. 

ABC, in collaboration with the Almond Alliance, also scored a win for the industry by getting almond products included in the guidelines for the Women, Infants, and Children program (WIC), serving over 6 million people every month.

At last year’s conference, ABC introduced a study it had been working on with Deloitte Consulting to assess emerging markets and determine a clear vision forward for target markets. The project evaluated over 100 countries, narrowed down to 11 key markets, and eventually concluded that the industry should double down on core markets like the U.S. and India, especially after seeing 21% growth in India over the last year.

India was already in ABC’s portfolio, but Deloitte’s feedback provided more details on why there needs to be deeper investment within their younger demographic, since 65% of India’s population is under 35. 

The study also emphasized developing a long-term growth plan for emerging markets including Turkey, Morrocco, and Indonesia, and staff has been working to understand these countries and assess what resonates with those audiences. 

One marketing program that has seen consistent return on investment is the Own Your Prime campaign, now in its second year –  ABC’s partnership with former NFL star Deion Sanders, also known as Coach Prime. As his presence gains more traction in mainstream media, so does California almonds. 

“He delivered 10 times greater media impressions than any previous ABC spokesperson,” said Emily Fleischmann, vice president, global market development at ABC. “We've seen this turn into consumer action. An in-store promotion with Kroger, which is the second largest retail chain in the nation, had a 42% increase in new buyers.”

Other opportunities ABC continues to seek out are places they can reach large and growing audiences like China’s T-MALL and online gaming. Starting this spring, they are also collaborating with Smoothie King. As the largest smoothie chain in the world, customers will be encouraged to add almond products to their smoothies to help with muscle recovery, based on exciting new research indicating almonds reduce pain and muscle damage post-exercise.

Staying Competitive

Turner noted that for 170 years, the almond industry has proved its tenacity and adaptability. It’s clear that challenges will be inevitable, so looking ahead, creativity and resourcefulness will be essential. Fortunately, ABC is equipped with valuable data to provide resources to growers and ensure almond farming remains a rewarding venture for years to come.

“I firmly believe that we have the right product in the right place at the right time, and we are well positioned to grow demand around the world for California almonds with new products, new markets, new innovations and new partnerships,” Turner concluded.